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Driver's Licence Ownership in Japan : Long Term Forecasting by Cohort Analysis 川嶋, 辰彦 カワシマ, タツヒコ 小笠原, 浩修 オガサワラ, ヒロノブ Kawashima, Tatsuhiko Ogasawara, Hironobu application/pdf This　paper，　in　the　attempt　of　presenting　a　part　of　study　examining　the　theoretical　and empirical　relationships　between　driver，s　licence　ownership　and　passenger　car　ownership， shows　the　results　of　a　long　term　forecast　of　the　driver，s　licence　ownership　by　sex　and age－group　in　Japan．　The　method　of　cohort　analysis　is　applied　to　Japan，s　data　in　order　to estimate　the　future　rates　of　driver，s　licence　ownership．　It　has　been　fou訟d　that，　under assumptio且s　set　in　this　study，　the　marginal　increlnent　of　total　driver，s　licence　ownership remains　approximately　six　to　eight　times　larger　than　that　of　population　level　ulltil　the beginning　of　the　next　century． 論文(Article) 学習院大学経済学会 1989-01 eng departmental bulletin paper VoR http://hdl.handle.net/10959/335 https://glim-re.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/253 AN00038827 00163953 學習院大學經濟論集 The journal of Faculty of Economics, Gakushuin University 25 3 37 64 https://glim-re.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/253/files/keizai_25_3_37_64.pdf application/pdf 1.3 MB 2012-03-15